PPI and EU Recovery Concerns Send EURO Falling
Posted on Tuesday, December 15th, 2009 at 12:05 pm.
Better than expected producer prices along with renewed concerns that Greece isn’t doing enough to reduce it’s debt caused a new round Euro Bears to jump into the market. This sent EURUSD falling below yesterday’s support around 1.4600. As of 2:00pm est it seems to have found new support at 1.4500. It wasn’t just news from the US and Greece that prompted the sell off, Austria’s announcement that it would nationalize Hypo Alpe-Adria Bank also contributed. With US numbers seeming to indicate slight improvement and the EU continuing to show signs of a slower than expected recovery many traders seem to be changing their tune and buying USD. Looking ahead: USD remains oversold and while a fairly significant retracement is expected in the short-term on EURUSD, we must wait for the appropriate signal from the market before acting. In the meantime, look to continue to buy USD rallies.
USD Gives Back Friday’s Gains
Posted on Monday, December 14th, 2009 at 11:46 am.
After some great USD Retail sales numbers on Friday which triggered USD buying frenzy, Monday has seen a different story. USD have given back most of it’s gains against AUD,NZD and GBP while most others have retraced about 50 percent. This is in line with most technical indicators which showed USD extremely overbought vs EUR and CHF. While AUD and others had held their ground during the Dollar’s rally over the last week or so. Entries today came with a reverse head and shoulders pattern on AUDUSD. Entry came when price closed about .9120 at 9:00am eastern this morning. EURGBP also made some significant moves and gave a nice signal with the trendline break at 12:00 est. Outlook for this week remains the same. Look for consolidation on EUR and GBP with a move to the upside tomorrow or Wednesday. Trigger levels for EURUSD are between 1.4682 and 1.4697. GBP USD trigger comes at a break of 1.6330.
Retail Sales and USD Soar
Posted on Friday, December 11th, 2009 at 2:31 pm.
Retail Sales numbers released today gave the USD renewed strength as it surged to highest levels since early October vs the Euro. Retail sales and Core retail sales were both up .7% from expectations. Couple this with the better than expected Non-Farm numbers from last Friday and the news from Greece earlier in the week it turned out to be a perfect storm. With the EURUSD trading between 1.4766 and 1.4683 since it bottomed out on Tuesday, entries today came with the trendline break when the 14:00 candle closed. The more conservative sell came with the break of support at 1.4680 at the close of the 15:00 candle. With today’s move, the EURUSD becomes even more oversold. Prospects for next week would be to look for a possible continuation early followed by retracement/consolidation and then a move up toward 1.4800-1.4850.
